Tinius Digest December 2021

Tinius Digest

Tinius Digest report on changes, trends and developments within the media business at large. These are our key findings from last month.

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Insight December 2021

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Schibsted: Six drivers for change

Schibsted has published their annual Schibsted Future report. Together with Amy Webb and the Future Today Institute, Schibsted has identified six drivers for change that will specifically influence our future.

Download the report.

Six drivers for change:

1

Changing demographics and society

Significant societal and cultural change will shift the face of the consumer and the cultural environment. Migration and immigration, combined with falling birth rates, are changing the Nordics. Changing consumer expectations may force Nordic companies to evaluate their business models across the core industries, while the changing political environment may shift regulation in the markets where they operate.

2

Artificial intelligence advancements

Artificial intelligence is changing the value we can extract from data and the nature of our interactions. AI represents the third era of computing and is used across most industries. The convergence of ground-breaking research, business use cases, the explosive growth of data, and improvements in computing power and storage enable AI advances. AI dramatically impacts the future of media.

3

Move to distributed consumption

Distributed consumption models are shifting the power dynamics in the relationship between companies and customers. As consumers move away from ownership of assets, subscription models enable them to buy access but at a cost; when subscriptions lapse, users don’t retain anything. Fractional ownership creates opportunities for affordable stakes in assets that would otherwise be out of reach for many, but these markets are driving asset prices higher as they spark speculative investing.

4

Financial, contract and verification technologies

Technology facilitates trusted interactions through decentralization and reduces the trust required between parties. This shift trust to the technology structure itself. Trust in brands may only come if they carry a verification seal backed by data we can inspect. Consumers will expect companies to adopt more of these technologies to reduce friction and make transparent information about product origin. By shaping the future of interactions, these technologies create opportunities for new services along with significant early-mover advantages due to the investment and network effects required.

5

Optimising decisions and discovery

New technologies and trends will impact how consumers find media and services — and how they behave once that happens. Changes in decision-making and discovery could disintermediate companies from their customers. This is an area of vulnerability for Scandinavia in general compared with global tech players driving innovation in these trends. At the same time, there are meaningful opportunities for anyone who can successfully identify a new product.

6

Growth of enabling technologies

Digital infrastructure that demonstrates an understanding of the customer and eliminates friction is shifting expectations. A host of new enabling technologies will shift the consumer and enterprise markets in the coming decade, as 5G and 6G networks are deployed, supply chains and retail operations are digitized, and climate change forces the fast adoption of intelligent grid management.

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TikTok important news source for young adults

Deloitte has published its annual survey on consumer habits and attitudes in Scandinavia. 4,000 consumers in Norway, Sweden and Denmark, responded to the survey.

Download the report.

Four main findings

1

News on TikTok most widespread in Norway

21 percent of Norwegian 18-24-year-olds have TikTok as one of their most important news sources. In Denmark and Sweden, only 13 percent of peers answer the same. 39 percent of 18-24-year-olds in Scandinavia have social media as their most important news source—compared to 17 percent in the entire population. 

2

Digital oriented consumers

55 percent of Scandinavian customers read reviews on their phones at least once a month. 75 percent use retailers’ websites when shopping on their smartphones. 51 percent prefer a laptop or desktop computer for online purchases—30 percent prefer to use a mobile phone.

3

SVOD: Growing minority want ads

More Scandinavian consumers are open to advertising in Video-On-Demand services. 33 percent of the respondents prefer discounted or free subscriptions that include ads. Among 18-24-year olds, this figure grows to 48 percent. Worth noting that most consumers still prefer a full-price subscription to avoid ads.

4

Increased demand for digital public services

Two-thirds (66%) of Scandinavian citizens interact with public authorities through their phones at least once a month. 41 percent use their phones to check their health data at least once a month.

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Dissatisfaction with login solutions

The Norwegian Media Businesses’ Association has conducted a survey about Norwegians attitudes to paying for news.

Download the report.

Three main findings

1

Login solutions crucial

86 percent of Norwegian newspaper subscribers see user-friendly login solutions as the most critical part of their subscription. User-friendly login is more important than ad-free content (75%) and original/exclusive content (58%). 47 percent find that it takes too long to log in, and 45 percent think it is challenging to remember usernames and passwords.

2

Increased access to paid news

69 percent of Norwegians now have access to paid news—up from 63 percent in 2018. Of these, 31 percent have access to digital only-subscriptions, and the same number have access to combination subscriptions (online+print). Among those without access to paid news, there is an overrepresentation of people under 45 and people with a lower income.

3

Access to free news is an obstacle

47 percent of those who do not have a newspaper subscription state that the reason is access to free news on digital platforms. An additional 27 percent points to sufficient access to news via radio or TV. 31 percent do not find that subscriptions provide enough value for money.

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2.9 billion people are still not online

International Telecommunication Union has published a report measuring global digital development.

Download the report.

Three main findings:

1

2.9 billion people remain offline

The uptake of the internet has accelerated during the pandemic. 63 percent of the world’s population is now online—an increase of 800 million people since 2019. Nonetheless, this means that some 2.9 billion people remain offline, 96 percent of whom live in developing countries.

2

Closer to gender parity

Globally, in 2020, 62 percent of all men were using the Internet, compared with 57 percent of all women. Gender parity has been achieved in developed countries as a whole (89% male/88% female) and the Americas (78-79), and almost achieved in Europe (87-83).

3

Youths leading the development

71 percent of the world’s youth (aged between 15 and 24 years) were using the Internet in 2020—compared to 57 percent of the other age groups. On the global scale, young people were thus 1.24 times more likely to connect than the rest of the population.

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Record number of detained journalists

Reporters Without Borders has published a report about journalists detained, killed, held hostage and missing.

Download report.

Three main findings:

1

Exceptional surge in detention

A total of 488 journalists are in prison because of their work—a 20 percent increase in one year. This exceptional surge in arbitrary detention is attributable mainly to five countries: China (127), Myanmar (53), Vietnam (43), Belarus (32) and Saudi Arabia (31).

2

More women are imprisoned

Reporters Without Borders has never previously registered such a high number of detained female journalists: 60 are currently in prison for their work – nearly double what it was four years ago. By comparison, the number of male colleagues in jail has risen by only 19%.

3

Almost one journalist killed every week

46 journalists and media workers were killed in connection with their work in 2021 (from  January to December). This is the lowest figure in nearly 20 years. You have to go back to 2003 to find another year with fewer than 50 journalists killed. Nonetheless, an average of almost one journalist a week is still being killed in connection with their work.

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2022: Five predictions

Deloitte Insights has published its annual predictions—this time for 2022.

Read the predictions.

Five predictions:

1

Choice for consumers, churn for providers

Subscription video-on-demand providers’ pursuit of global viewers ignites competition and catalyzes churn. In 2022, at least 150 million paid subscriptions to streaming video-on-demand services will be canceled worldwide, with churn rates of up to 30% per market.

2

Targeting for reach

Addressable TV advertising has a long way to go before it’s a major part of the TV advertising landscape. And what can get it there will be its ability to show the same ad to far more viewers, rather than targeting different households with different ads.

3

NFT provides new revenue streams

Non-fungible tokens (NFT) will likely create significant new revenue streams for different industries and sectors. Digital sports memorabilia give fans a chance to acquire, not just view, licensed digital media of their favorite sports moment. By the end of 2022, up to five million sports fans globally will have purchased or been gifted an NFT sports collectible.

4

Truly wireless growth

Wireless internet access is finally becoming competitive with wired internet services. The number of fixed wireless access connections will grow from about 60 million in 2020 to roughly 88 million in 2022, with 5G access representing almost seven percent of the total.

5

Innovations are bolstering the console ecosystem

The console market will generate US$81 billion in 2022, up 10% from 2021. Revenues per console player, of whom there will be 900 million by the end of the year, are expected to average US$92 per person—substantially more than the projected US$23 per PC gamer and US$50 per mobile gamer.

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